The statistical release P0302, uses the cohort-component methodology to estimate the 2006 mid-year population of South Africa.  These estimates explicitly account for HIV and AIDS.  The 2006 mid-year population is estimated at approximately 47.4 million.  Fifty-one per cent (approximately 24.1 million) of the population is female.  KwaZulu-Natal has the largest share of the South African population.  Just over 20 percent of the population lives in this province.  For 2006, life expectancy at birth is estimated at approximately 49 years for males and 53 years for females.  The estimated overall HIV-prevalence rate is approximately 11%.  The HIV positive population is estimated at approximately 5.2 million.

South Africa , like many developing countries, is moving through a demographic transition, where dropping death rates are followed by declining birth rates, and the combined outcome is a declining rate of natural population increase.  The common wisdom two decades ago was that the population would grow steadily into the new millennium, albeit at a declining rate.  HIV and AIDS have prompted a serious revision of earlier projections, however, with the prospect of a declining population becoming ever more likely.  At best, population projections are based on assumptions and scenarios, and HIV and AIDS has added a layer of complexity to the calculations.  For projections to assess the impact of HIV and AIDS, forecasts of prevalence are needed (that is, forecasts of the proportion of the country’s total population that is infected at any particular time), as well as forecasts of when prevalence is likely to peak and trends in AIDS-related deaths.

In line with the United States Census Bureau, the US-based Population Reference Bureau estimates that South Africa’s population will drop from to 35.1 million in 2025, and 32.5 million in 2050.  These projections would however be influenced by immigration (illegal as well as legal) of people.  The impact on the size of the country’s population of people moving into South Africa is substantial, with immigration from Africa in particular to some extent counterbalancing downward trends in natural population growth. The number of those entering from outside the country is difficult to measure, because of illegal immigration into South Africa and because of insufficiently understood circulatory migration patterns of people moving between rural and urban areas. As an indicator, between the 1996 and 2001 censuses, the number of persons who indicated that they were born in Southern African Development Community (SADC) countries increased by 158 000, while the number living in South Africa but born in other African countries increased by 21 800.  Recent reports on asylum seekers show a similar upward trend.  In 2004, 104 000 applications for asylum were received by authorities, more than double the figure for 2000.